Saturday 10 June 2017

Ruth Davidson will be leader of the Conservative Party by the end of the year.

So the Tories will join with the DUP, and the number of seats for the government is 328, a majority of just six.

Labour and anyone that is anti-Tory are celebrating, yet some people are pointing out that this is silly as the Tories won.

First lets look at the positives for The Tories.

They gained seats in Scotland.  It seems like, right now, that the referendum 2.0 on Scottish independence has been cancelled.

I think this is on hold. They had a ref in 2013, the SNP lost but in the GE in 2015 they made massive gains winning, what, 56 seats?

Even pre-Brexit there were calls for another ref, Brexit hasn't happened yet so if it doesn't go the way the Scots want there called be calls for a second ref.

For now the Tories will have taken the gains they made in Scotland had they been offered them pre the result.

In the election overall the Tories did increase their share.  The collapse of UKIP plus the gains in Scotland and collecting a few gains in England helped with this.

There are positives for the Tories in this.

However when you stack them up against their negatives they're insignificant.

Going into this election the Tory share of seats was 331.  If your share is 325 you only need one more seat to be the majority in the house of 650 seats.

Labour had a share of 232, 99 fewer.

Why this is significant is because Labour would never have been in with a chance of been able to gain power to make a challenge had the Tories lost some angry dissatisfied rebel MPs.  Labour were in a weak position.

May called this election because she deemed Labour to be weak so she wanted to increase her share, give herself five more years of power and have the mandate of delivering whatever type of Brexit she wanted.

She gambled and she lost.

So let me explain why this is bad for her.

Within the Tory Party you have traditional Tories who are pro-fox hunting, anti-gay right wing, probably a little bit racist.  This is a minority. Most Tories are fairly liberal in comparison.

In Scotland the leader of the Scottish Tories, Ruth Davidson, is herself gay.  It really must stick in the craw for some Tories to have a homosexual running their campaign north of the border.

Not quite winning enough seats means the Tories have to look to the other parties, offer them a chance at helping them form a government.

In 2010 they had the same situation and did a deal with the Liberals. There are many liberal supporters in the Tories so it isn't too hard to find common ground.  

The Liberals ran a campaign appealing to the younger vote and those that took that bait only to see them betray those who voted for them.

As I have already alluded the Tory Party is a broad spectrum, there are some liberals in there but there are also your traditional Conservatives.

The party most likened to the Tories are the DUP.  Completely believe in the union, the Northern Irish Conservatives fully support Brexit from a further right wing point of view than some Conservatives will feel comfortable with.

The best thing you can say about them is they're evangelical christians....  no, that really is the best thing.

They're homophobic, they make no secret about that, are they happy about Ruth Davidson, is she happy about them?

The DUP are answerable to their voters, they can't ditch their manifesto pledges.

If the Tories shift too far to the right and the opposition Labour offers a fairer Brexit for the country you could see some Tories leaving the party, becoming independents just to prop-up Labour and getting a better deal.

This General Election has unquestionably made Theresa May weaker.  Her leadership is being propped up by the most right wing party in British Politics.

Step forward Ruth Davidson.  If her ambition was to ever be leader of the Tory Party she will get no better chance.

She has shown she can deal with the SNP, shown she can lead and will have a lot of support within the left of the party.

She can get a good deal with the EU for Scottish supporters and nullify any future referendum threat.

She is left wing enough that she can claim the now deserted centre ground of British politics.

1 comment:

  1. I fully agree Ruth Davidson would be the best leader but she's probablt too young, at 38, to get the job just yet. David Davis or Boris, God help us, atre more likely I think

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